S/he who asserts must prove.

Super Bowl previews often become a rocket-science thesis. In reality, it’s not that complicated. #Investigate the past to determine the future. Find the #evidence, interpret the evidence. Here’s the evidence of who will win:

  1. #PressurePoints. The outcome of the Super Bowl depends on who pressures the opposing quarterback and receivers the most and the best. Quantity and quality of pressure connects to points. Maximum pressure causes an explosion of points for the team applying the pressure. QB pressure includes sacks and near-sacks, defined as any pass play where the QB has to decide to throw or run before he needed to and wanted to. Receiver pressure means contacting receivers at the line of scrimmage, preventing free release. The conventional #BumpAndRun tactic won’t be enough to stop the Chiefs passing. Instead, the 49ers need to #Smash&Stop. If Patrick Mahomes does not get #pressured, the Chiefs will pile on points and bury the 49ers. Same thing will happen if the Chiefs receivers are allowed to run free off the line of scrimmage. The same applies to the 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo. No pressure, Jimmy G. will pile up points. This Super Bowl features two young QBs with limitless potential. No pressure on either QB will result in massive points scored.
  2. #ZoneDefense is #ZeroDefense. The 49ers use zone defense a lot, specifically Cover 3 which features 3 deep zones and 4 short zones covered by a total of 7 defenders, leaving only 4 defenders to rush the QB. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs receivers will carve up the 49ers if the 49ers use zone defense as their primary defensive strategy. Guaranteed. When the Chiefs have the ball, watch the 49ers defense. If the 49ers defender drop away from receivers to a zone instead of bashing Kansas City receivers, the Chiefs will win in a blow out.
  3. #QuarterMark: At the end of the first quarter check the following stats:
  • If the 49ers have rushed for 50 yards or more as team, they will win big.
  • If the Chiefs have 80 or more yards, they will win big.
  • Whoever suffers the first turnover in the first quarter will lose big. Neither team will recover from an interception or fumble in the first quarter.
  • If the Chiefs are winning 14-0 at the end of the first quarter, the 49ers will alter their identity. Chiefs will win in a blowout.
  • If the 49ers are winning 14-0 at the end of the first quarter, it won’t matter because the Chiefs will not lose their identity.
  • If the 49ers have zero QB sacks at the end of the 1st quarter, the Chiefs will win big.

4. #MonstersWin. Follow the tight end stats throughout the game. This Super Bowl features the two best tight ends in the world – the 49ers George Kittle and the Chiefs Travis Kelce. Both are monsters – linebacker-sized with defensive back speed. Whichever tight end wins the battle for most receptions and most receiving yards is the strongest evidence of who will win. Both tight ends are unstoppable. Both are capable of making the biggest impact in the game and being the Super Bowl MVP. The reason is complicated but to make a long story short, monster tight ends cause the #1 coverage bind for opposing defences. The more catches a tight end makes, the more likely a defensive coordinator will panic and make strange calls that will sink his team.

5. #HalftimeShow. At halftime, check one stat – turnover ratio. The team who has a +1 turnover ratio will win by one TD. The team with a +2 or more turnover ratio at halftime will win big.

6. #PickSix. If either defense scores a touchdown at any time in the game, that team will win.

7. #4thandhell. Count the field goal attempts. The team that attempts the most field will lose big.

8. #goforit. The team that goes for it the most on 4th down will win. Guaranteed.

9. #MushtoMuscle. If the Chiefs defense gets out-muscled like the Packers defense did two weeks ago, the 49ers will blow-out the Chiefs.

Conclusions:

  1. The only pass coverage that will stop Patrick Mahomes is sacks. Lots of sacks. If he is standing, the Chiefs will drop mega-bombs on the 49ers and win. No defense will stop Mahomes is Mahomes is unpressured and given enough time.
  2. Same applies to Jimmy G. Leaving him standing and he will drop the bombs on the Chiefs.
  3. If the Chiefs defense does not put up a 5th Degree #streetfight on every 49er running play, the 49ers will #maul the Chiefs and win big.

#MUCHLOVE #soulofalifter

Blessings + all good things

#peace

Gino Arcaro